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2011/12 the textile Economy Problems and Thinking
Date:2012/1/18 PV:7588

        First, in 2011 the basic situation of economic operation

        2011 is the "second five" first year, on the whole, the textile industry structure adjustment and industrial upgrading continue to advance and the quality has improved steadily, normal annual growth indicators, the overall smooth running posture. However, the various risks facing the industry is running significantly increased over the previous year, raw material price fluctuations, tight financing environment, the various elements and labor costs, sluggish external demand growth and a series of factors that increase the operating pressure, industry sales, investment, efficiency monthly growth rate slowed quarter by quarter, effective growth rate of decline is particularly prominent, the following small-scale micro-enterprises have greater operational difficulties, the industry runs the main show the following characteristics:

        1, to maintain production growth continued to slow down growth

According to National Bureau of Statistics, 1 November 2011, the national 36,000 scale textile enterprises realized a total industrial output value of 4.95264 trillion yuan, up 27.5%; chemical fiber production is 30,744,000 tons, an increase of 14.9%; yarn production 26,319,000 tons, up 12.5 percent; cloth production 56.78 billion meters, up 13.3 percent; clothing production 22.97 billion, an increase of 8.5%, industry production was normal. However, due to raw material price volatility, power shortage, rising wage costs, lack of external demand and other factors, the growth rate showed a declining trend in production, midstream and downstream products more pronounced slowdown. End of the quarter compared with a 1-November output growth above-scale enterprises decreased by 4.1 percentage points, chemical fiber production growth rate declined 3.1 percentage points, yarn production growth rate declined 0.1 percentage points, cloth production growth rate declined 6.2 percentage points, apparel production growth rate down 6.1 percentage points. According to the National Federation of 82 key textile industry cluster survey data, October 1 following small-scale enterprises cluster region output value increased by only 0.3% growth rate over the first quarter fell 9.1 percentage points.

        2, the price increase to support export growth, the number of growth close to "zero"

According to customs data, from January to November 2011, the national textile and garment exports $ 231.84 billion, an increase of 21.0% growth rate by 6 percentage points lower end of April. Rapid growth of export industries is a major factor in the product price increases. It is estimated that by optimizing export structure and production costs and other factors, 1 November 2011, textile and garment export prices increased 20.4% year on year, the stimulating effect of growth of total exports reached 98%. Excluding price factors, 1 November the number of textile and garment exports increased by only 0.5% year on year, of which garment exports increased by only 0.1%, part of the export orders the transfer to the surrounding low-cost countries, the international terminal market demand is not optimistic.

3, the steady growth of domestic demand, domestic sales continued to expand

National Bureau of Statistics, 1 November, the national clothing retail sales above designated size increased by 23.9%. Domestic output value of textile enterprises above designated size reached 4.01011 trillion yuan, up 30.3% over the same period of the same caliber of export delivery value of 14.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate; domestic output value of the proportion of total sales value of 82.9% over the previous year increased by 1.8 percentage points. But by the impact of price rises, consumption growth during the year 2011 to be a slight slowdown, net of price factors (1 to 11 months clothing CPI increased 2% year on year), 1 November retail sales of clothing a year earlier, the actual growth rate fell 4.4 percentage points higher than the first quarter of 2011 decreased by 0.4 percentage points, above-scale enterprises over a quarter of domestic output growth fell 3.3 percentage points.

4, the industry investment growth slowed down, continue to optimize regional distribution

        1 November 2011, the textile industry, 500 million yuan in fixed assets investment projects amounted to 610.16 billion yuan, up 34.7% growth rate over the January to March, down 3.8 percentage points; number of new projects to 13,129, an increase of only 1.8 percent. Investment and slow growth in new projects, corporate finance environmental stress and lack of funds, but also reflects the enterprise market confidence and investment will decline. Regional distribution of new investments, in the western region investment to achieve rapid growth, accounting for further improvement. 1 to 11 months, in the western business investment in fixed assets increased by 55.7% and 51.8%, significantly higher than the growth rate of 23% of the eastern region; in the western proportion of the country's total new investment, respectively, 30.6% and 8.1%, than the same period last year increased 4.1 and 0.9 percentage points, the textile industry to the Midwest continue to accelerate the pace.

5 and the quality improved steadily

Although in 2011 the textile industry is facing a lot of pressure to run, but the structure adjustment and industrial upgrading continue to advance and the quality improved steadily. 1 to 10 months, the labor productivity of above-scale enterprises (calculated in accordance with industrial output) was 53.1 yuan / person, up 21.1%, steady improvement in industry productivity; third charge ratio of 5.6% a year earlier, down 0.2 percentage points which monetary tightening caused a substantial increase in corporate interest expense, but the financial costs account for three fee percentage to the previous year, indicating that management continues to improve; total asset turnover of 1.6 times / year, an increase of 8%, quality and asset management companies efficiency of the basic good.

6, the industry's overall profit, but profit growth fell faster

        Operation to improve the quality, expand domestic demand, driven by the textile industry profit growth. 1 October 2011, large-scale textile enterprises realized a total profit of 215.56 billion yuan, an increase of 29%; sales profit rate of 5%, unchanged from last year. However, due to fluctuations in raw material prices, production and financing costs, industry profit growth continued to slow down, 1 to 10 months over a quarter of the growth rate down 24.6 percentage points in October month growth rate of only 7.8% of the profit, down 40 percentage points higher than the beginning . Federation of key industry clusters based on survey data, from 1 October following small-scale cluster, corporate profits rose 11.4%, lower than the growth rate of nearly 40% of above-scale enterprises; export processing small business benefits fell more prominent, the export share of 9 greater than 20% of the apparel industry clusters, small enterprises total profit growth of only 4.7% year on year.

Second, the industry runs the outstanding problems facing the

1, the raw material price volatility

        Domestic cotton prices in 2011 showed the trend of ups and downs. In early March, the price exceeded 31,000 yuan a high point, about 15% higher than the beginning, then all the way down cotton prices, low prices in August than in March fell more than 60% high. Cotton price volatility is not only caused by poor production and marketing of cotton spinning enterprise, inventory, hidden losses and profits decline, and the negative effects of conduction along the chain, affecting the normal upstream and downstream production orders and market confidence, a serious impediment to the stable operation of the textile industry. 2011, the domestic cotton price fluctuations, and production increases, demand for change, credit crunch and market speculation, and many other factors, and our cotton price mechanism has not been with the international market, the current import management system can not be used for domestic supply and demand of international market resources to form effective regulation, put cotton storage system could play a balancing role in international cotton prices, the lack of effective inhibition of the domestic cotton price fluctuations and balance system to ensure that all relevant Fangli Yi. Since September 2011, temporary storage of cotton in the country under the policy underpinning the domestic cotton prices remained stable, but continued low international cotton prices, cotton inside and outside the spread is widening, in March 2012 after the end of the domestic purchasing and storage hard to predict cotton prices, cotton and other raw materials, there is a big market risks.

        2, the cost of production continued to increase

With China's sustained economic development, domestic labor, fuel and other factor prices showed rigidity, rising trend, increasing the effective resolving production costs have become the textile industry to upgrade the long-term task. In 2011, the elements of the textile industry, prices continue to rise, the most prominent of which labor costs, an increase of 15% or more. Domestic coal, electricity, gas and other resource element prices also rose, from 1 to 11 months, fuel and power purchase prices of industrial enterprises increased 11% year on year. In a variety of factors of production costs continue to rise, banks are raising interest rates, appreciation of the renminbi and other factors with superimposed, although the industry production efficiency and management level rising, but most companies is difficult to completely cover the costs of multiple factors, in a highly competitive market environment the product price increases is limited, enterprises are facing increasing pressure of rising costs.

3, highlighting the problem of corporate finance

        The textile industry, mostly in small and medium enterprises financing the long standing problem. In 2011, significant tightening of domestic monetary policy, impact on the textile SMEs outstanding loans, loan interest rates go up and the use of high-risk private lending and other issues highlight the tight liquidity as the primary risk facing the textile industry. October 2011, the State Council issued a series of small micro-enterprises to broaden the financing channels of policy measures, but the implementation of results in the textile industry is not yet clear. 2012, in the implementation of prudent monetary policy does not exclude the possibility of fine-tuning to the loose, but small-scale textile SME assets, profitability is difficult with limited industry-specific fundamental change, a range of services in the SME financing institutions, mechanisms will be long-term gradual process, the textile business financing problem is difficult to fundamentally solve the risk of corporate capital chain still need attention.

       4, more intense competition in international market

By the global economic recovery is slow, the European sovereign debt crisis and other factors, in 2011 the international textile and apparel market demand downturn. According to relevant statistics, from January to October the number of U.S. textile and apparel imports decreased by 2.3% a year earlier. Weakness in the international market more competitive, India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Bangladesh and other developing countries, relying on lower raw materials, labor costs and more favorable policy environment, the export competitiveness of the rapid increases in exports of cotton yarn and low-grade garments, textile products indeed more than the price of similar products in China a competitive advantage, to a certain extent, resulting in China's export processing SMEs in the loss of orders. According to research, are now the eastern part of the cluster, about 15% of small businesses have ceased processing, semi-shutdown state. China's export-processing of SMEs in the loss of orders and domestic costs and policy factors related to the textile industry, the international division of labor and structural readjustment of the results, but if such transfer orders too fast, resulting in further expansion of corporate lay-off area, will pass employment sectors that affect social harmony and stability.

Current industry faces a number of prominent running problems, some because of policy changes in the current situation and short-term external environmental factors and more show highlights, and some are in the process of industrial transformation and upgrading can not be avoided, and long-term existence, we need to take a different response to find a solution.

Third, the economic situation in 2012, industry analysis and countermeasures

2012, the textile industry is facing internal and external environment is still very complex, from the development environment to see the situation will be tight some of the industry, especially the first half of the situation may be more severe. On the one hand, the European debt crisis continues to escalate, the world economic recovery is weak, consumers will have a significant negative impact on the international market, especially as the main consumer of the United States, Europe and other developed countries, economic recovery is weak, unemployment is expected to the international market demand growth will remain sluggish, export enterprises are facing lack of demand, competitive pressures and trade frictions will become more prominent. On the other hand, consumption growth more difficult, domestic investment demand has slowed, China's economic growth in 2012 to further increase the downward pressure, fluctuations in raw material prices, labor and other factor prices, the financing environment for SMEs has not been substantial improve the situation, as a competitive textile industry may face even greater difficulties.

Nevertheless, the textile and clothing as necessities determines the basic properties of domestic and international market demand and will not decline significantly, particularly in our domestic market fundamentals do not change, urban-rural income growth will remain no less than economic growth the speed of improving people's livelihood and expanding domestic demand will continue to implement policies and measures, with inflationary pressures gradually eased, textiles and clothing still conditions the steady expansion of domestic demand, continue to be the primary support for the textile industry. It should also be noted that although the international market competition more intense, but with the maturity of China's textile industry, formed a complete industrial system integration competitive advantage in the variety, quality and market share, there is still more significant international competitive advantage. At the same time, the external environment, the formation of tight Forced mechanism of the market, bringing a new round of industry reshuffle, to promote enterprises to speed up adjustment improved.

Thus, in 2012 China's textile industry, production and marketing, benefits will continue to grow, the main performance indicators above-scale enterprises is expected to maintain double-digit growth, but growth will slow over the previous year, which under the conditions of economic downturn due to the terminal market consumer price tolerance space, and is expected to benefit the industry growth rate of exports and decline will be more obvious, the following small-scale processing enterprises are facing difficulties will become more prominent.
        Based on the above for the textile industry to determine the overall economic situation, up and down the whole industry in 2012 should conscientiously implement the central economic work conference "maintaining stability" overall tone of the spirit, to expand domestic demand as the strategic basis, according to the central "to speed up economic restructuring, strengthening self-coordinated development "requirements of the new year and the grim situation facing various difficulties have full, objective and clear understanding of the development of further enhancing confidence in the industry, based on targeted to take measures to cope with .

First, a high degree of attention to micro-enterprises and small and medium enterprises in coastal areas of export processing operation, once the decline in external demand and domestic economic downturn, these companies will face greater pressure to affect the stable operation of the entire industry. Must focus on strengthening research, an accurate grasp of the operation of such business trends, relevant government departments in a timely manner to reflect their health and policy demands, and further promote the state financial support for small and medium enterprises and micro-structural tax policy implementation, for their degree had difficulties, stable employment, restructuring and development to create a good environment.

        Second, the economic impact of downward pressure, the industry will highlight the contradiction between the total amount of international trade friction may increase. To this end, on the one hand to strengthen self-discipline, standardize the market order and trade practices, to prevent excessive competition; the other hand, accelerate structural adjustment, correct and guide enterprises to solid Lianhaoneigong, sound reasonable arrangements for its daily production operations, strengthen internal management, reduce production costs, efforts to develop new products, new channels and new markets, the full implementation of corporate social responsibility, every effort within its power to do their thing.

Third, as an industry organization, the China Textile Industry Association will concentrate its actions on industry analysis and policy research, communication and coordination with relevant government departments to actively strive in cotton circulation system, printing bottleneck, reducing the burden of textile enterprises and other key policy areas to achieve breakthrough . Do a good job an industry exhibition, to open up domestic consumption, the public platform, and information technology consulting, industrial transfer guide, independent brand building, management, innovation promotion and other basic services work for the stable operation of enterprises to provide effective help.

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